Nguyen Trung Tien, Deputy General Director of the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and Investment), said that from 2022, every five years, the statistics industry will review the size of the economy.
"Review and re-evaluate to know exactly what the actual GDP scale is, through which the National Assembly and Government come up with solutions, mechanisms and policies to run the economy more effectively," he said. Tien emphasized.
The General Statistics Office has reviewed GDP twice. Sir, should the GDP scale be reviewed?
In the process of compiling GDP indicators in any country, there are always problems that need to be reviewed and re-evaluated. According to the results of the review and re-evaluation in 2019, the GDP scale of Vietnam in the period 2010-2017 increased by 25.4%/year, estimated at about 935,000 billion VND/year. In which, in 2017, GDP scale after re-evaluation reached VND 6,294,000 billion, significantly increased compared to VND 5,006,000 billion announced previously.
The size of Vietnam's GDP after re-evaluation has been recognized by international financial institutions and institutions, because not only Vietnam, all countries after re-evaluating the GDP scale have increased significantly. In other countries, the growth rate is much higher than that of Vietnam.
Like other countries in the world, especially those with similar levels of economic development, in Vietnam, in the process of surveying and collecting data to compile annual GDP, there are many economic activities. In fact, the statistical agency cannot immediately have accurate data without conducting a census. Moreover, in the process of digital transformation and economic development, there are many new economic activities that cannot be counted without a review. Therefore, the size of GDP after re-evaluation is natural.
Should GDP be reviewed every 5 years, because many countries around the world do this not consistently?
GDP is a particularly important macroeconomic indicator. Besides reflecting the results of production and business activities; reflects the size and growth rate of the economy, is a measure of the strength of each economy in the world, people's income..., GDP is also used to compile important macroeconomic indicators Others reflect the quality of the economy and calculate leverage indicators, such as the ratio of tax mobilization to the budget compared to GDP, budget deficit, public debt, government debt, development investment...
With developed economies, production and business activities have stabilized, especially with openness and transparency, so it is not necessary to periodically review them. But for emerging economies like Vietnam, it is necessary to periodically review GDP.
Vietnam only reviewed twice. The first time was carried out in 2008, only reviewed with the banking, insurance and financial sectors. The second time in 2019 with a larger scale. Because it took too long to review, the GDP scale increased quite high, causing some domestic economists to doubt the data and question the review target.
Therefore, in the Law amending and supplementing a number of articles and the Appendix - List of National Statistical Indicators of the Law on Statistics, the National Assembly assigned the Minister of Planning and Investment to assume the prime responsibility for, and coordinate with other Ministries, branches and localities must review the scale of gross domestic product every 5 years, report to the Government and submit to the National Assembly for consideration and decision.
In 2019, after announcing the GDP reevaluation, many people said that, after one night of waking up, their per capita income increased by several hundred dollars, while the real income remained the same?
Per capita income has not changed with or without revision. When not reviewed, there are many economic activities that have not been recorded, omitted, or not fully recorded for many reasons, so the actual GDP scale is higher than the announced number. After reviewing, GDP is closer to reality, larger than the announced figure, so when taking GDP after re-evaluation and dividing it by population, the per capita income is recorded higher, while It's true that people's income is still the same, not increasing any more.
Sir, to the people, what are the benefits of reviewing GDP?
Annually announced GDP targets that are lower or higher than reality are detrimental. If it is lower, the indicators of debt, government debt, public debt, state budget revenue, overspending, development investment spending... will be higher, even alarmingly high. If not re-evaluated to make timely adjustments, it will affect national financial security and negatively affect all aspects of socio-economic life in general.
When the annual published GDP is higher than the actual rate, but the ratio of overspending, public debt and budget revenue is still the same, if not reassessed, the opportunity to borrow money will be lost, increase spending on people, investment and development. economic growth...
Thus, when GDP is reassessed, people do not feel they benefit, because their income remains the same, but in fact people benefit a lot, because all the macroeconomic policies to Social and economic development is nothing but serving the people.
So why not shorten the time of review and re-evaluation so that the National Assembly and Government can promptly issue mechanisms and policies to improve the efficiency of the economy?
Countries review GDP periodically, usually every 5 years, because after the 5-year cycle, the economy's changes are obvious. For Vietnam, this cycle is even more reasonable, because in 5 years, the General Statistics Office will carry out a comprehensive census of population and housing; agriculture, rural areas and economic census.
Moreover, in 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031…, the Party and National Assembly set out a 5-year socio-economic development plan and a 10-year socio-economic development strategy. Therefore, re-evaluating the GDP scale at this time also aims to provide information and a database for the Party, National Assembly and Government to plan development plans and strategies with appropriate mechanisms and policies. Practice.
Manh Bon (baodautu.vn)