The economic picture has gradually turned to bright colors, since the Government issued Resolution 128/NQ-CP on safe, flexible adaptation and effective control of the Covid-19 epidemic.
Bright colors of the economic picture
If taking October 11, 2021, the date the Government issued Resolution 128/NQ-CP on safe, flexible adaptation and effective control of the Covid-19 epidemic, as a hinge, it can be seen that the The difference is quite obvious on the two sides of the hinge. On one side is the economy grayed by Covid-19, and on the other, the color gamut has become brighter.
Reporting on the socio-economic situation in November and 11 months of 2021, the General Statistics Office also mentioned a lot of Resolution 128/NQ-CP, considering it as one of the important reasons that make economic activities worse. - society gradually enters the "new normal" orbit and thanks to that, the economy continues to recover.
"Industrial production in November continued to prosper when localities across the country implemented Resolution No. 128/NQ-CP", the General Statistics Office analyzed. And this statement is present in most of the macroeconomic indicators that have just been released.
By the end of October 2021, that is, after only 20 days of Resolution 128/NQ-CP was issued, the economy showed signs of improvement. And now, that trend is continuing.
A lot of macroeconomic indicators can be cited to confirm that. For example, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in November 2021 is estimated to increase by 5.5% over the previous month and by 5.6% over the same period last year.
Production recovered, goods circulation was convenient, it is easy to understand why import and export growth was very positive. Last month, the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecast that Vietnam's merchandise trade would reach $600 billion this year. But by the end of November 2021, it is estimated that the number has reached over 599.12 billion USD, which is only a very short step away from the 600 billion USD mark.
With this positive growth rate, it is likely that, when the official number is announced by the General Department of Customs, the economy can reach the $600 billion mark right in November, not needing to wait until December.
In addition, for three consecutive months, the economy recorded a trade surplus. Therefore, it is estimated that in 11 months, the country has a trade surplus of 255 million USD. The number is very small compared to the trade surplus of 20.19 billion USD of the same period last year, but in the context of Covid-19, the trade surplus is a positive signal. The economy is facing difficulties, the assurance of major balances of the economy will positively support macroeconomic stability, creating a foundation for economic growth.
Thanks to the recovery in production and export, the situation of new business establishment is also positive. According to data from the Business Registration Department (Ministry of Planning and Investment), the number of newly registered enterprises in November increased significantly compared to the previous month in terms of both the number of enterprises (up 44.6%), registered capital and the number of registered enterprises. sign (increase by 38%) and number of employees (increase of 30.2%). The number of businesses returning to operation also increased by 15.2% over the previous month.
"This result shows the recovery of production and business activities after more than a month of implementing Resolution 128/NQ-CP", the Business Registration Department said.
Beginning of the recovery period
Not only industrial production, import-export, or new business establishment, many other macro indicators also show that the recovery momentum of the economy is continuing.
For example, attraction of newly registered and additional foreign direct investment capital still increased sharply over the same period. The economy's purchasing power is also improving, with total retail sales of goods and services in November increasing 6.2% month-on-month. Inflation was also controlled, with the average consumer price index in 11 months increasing by 1.84%, the lowest in the past 5 years…
However, it is quite clear that, although the light color gamut is gradually increasing in the economic picture, the difficulties ahead are still great. In fact, the high increase was recorded mainly compared to the previous month, but compared to the same period, the growth rate was still very low.
The most obvious is industrial production, in general, in 11 months, IIP only increased by 3.6% over the same period in 2020. Or the number of newly established enterprises in 11 months only reached 105,600 enterprises, with more than 1,454 million billion VND. and 784,200 employees, down 15% in the number of enterprises, 22.6% in registered capital and 19.2% in the number of employees over the same period last year.
In 11 months, there were still more than 52,100 enterprises temporarily suspending business, up 17.3% over the same period last year; nearly 39,500 enterprises stopped operating waiting for dissolution procedures, up 17.4% and 14,900 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, down 3.7%. Thus, on average, nearly 9,700 businesses withdraw from the market every month.
Statistics also show that, while registered foreign investment capital increased, disbursed capital only reached 17.1 billion USD in the past 11 months, down 4.2% over the same period in 2020 and slightly down 0. ,1 percentage point compared to 10 months of 2021.
Covid-19 is still a big obsession of the economy, in the context that there is only 1 month left until the end of 2021. That also means, we only have 1 month left to strive for the best results. possibly in 2021. If the results are good, it will be an important foundation for the economy to enter 2022 with more favorable conditions.
The road to economic recovery is beginning. And perhaps, in the meantime, all hope is being placed on the Economic Recovery and Development Program that the Government is building.
In November 2021, the total import and export turnover of goods was estimated at 59.7 billion USD, up 8.5% compared to October and 19.7% over the same period last year. In which, export turnover alone reached 29.9 billion USD, up 3.6% over the previous month and up 18.5% over the same period last year.
Ha Nguyen (baodautu.vn)